So I see that ESPN is running with a KC radio station's story that they have sources that say that Nebraska, Missouri and Notre Dame has had talks about joining the Big Ten conference. Nevermind that the Kansas City Star and both Big 12 schools refuted the story, ESPN decided to run away with this story hook, line, and sinker. Even if you're a fan of one of these schools, let me tell you why you should take ZERO stock in the Big 10 adding anyone but Notre Dame.
TIMING - The Big 10 has said time and time again it will take 12-18 months in total time to decide to expand, but they've made a decision in less than four? Do you really believe that? This report, even if semi-true is made just to force the Big 12's hand into seeing if they can get a better TV deal and split up some money through the North division. Right now, I can not see that happening when the conference hasn't won a national title in a while. On a regular conference weekend, 8 of the 12 teams are on national broadcasts, with the option of one of the 2 games not picked up to go to pay per view (Nebraska has done this a lot the last few years, with them having profited tremendously). You can blame that on fan base; Nebraska fans will be quicker to pick up a game on PPV and pay the money at home and bars than Mizzou fans will.
COLORADO WANTS OUT OF THE BIG 12, LIKE NOW - It's no secret that Colorado is awful in most sports in the Big 12. Football team is spinning tires under Dan Hawkins, they are looking for a new basketball coach, and they do not have a baseball team to field. The cost of doing business in the Big 12 for them is bad for their school; the cost of going to an away game is getting higher and higher (the closest Big 12 team, K-State, is a 7 hour drive). It makes sense for Colorado to go to the Pac 10 conference as fast as possible. California has a very large Colorado alumni association (almost 35k plus, versus 11k total in all other Big 12 North states), and they could compete better in both football and men's and women's basketball in that conference. The reason they haven't gone yet, though, is..
COST TO LEAVE THE BIG 12 CONFERENCE - The guys at DoubleExtraPoint broke down the cost of leaving the conference for Colorado...
"The Boulder Daily Camera states, "Under Big 12 rules, Colorado must give two years notice if it plans to withdraw from the league and would forfeit 50 percent of its conference distribution for both of those years. CU received $9.7 million from the Big 12 for the 2008-09 school year and is expecting about $9 million this year because the league had only one team in a Bowl Championship Series football game. Assuming those numbers remain consistent over the next two years, it would cost Colorado roughly $4.5 million per year or $9 million over two years to leave the Big 12. The fall of 2012 is the target date for any possible Pac-10 expansion because that is when its new television agreements will begin."
The Wiz of Odds followed with, "The athletic department has an operating budget of about $45 million, which means a forfeiture of roughly 10%. That's a lot of money for a department that balked at firing Dan Hawkins because a $3 million separation package was viewed as too steep a price.
.... Now, imagine if Nebraska makes a BCS bowl game in anytime of that two years, would Tom Osborne want to eliminate, as a ballpark figure, $13-14 million dollars? I know that Mizzou couldn't do that, you're eliminating a lot of the budget. Unless you have a donor that just has $10 million laying around, or the Big 10 would pay the money, it's not going to happen.
NOTRE DAME FACTOR- it makes perfect sense for Notre Dame to get in the conference, that would help them in basketball first, but then the football team would get better visibility through the schedule and television deal. (NBC's deal with ND stinks, for a lack of a better term) Plus, geographically it's easier for a team in Indiana to play there than someone from Nebraska. How many games would Husker fan go to in, say, Indiana/Pennsylvania? Everyone in the Big 12 North is, at worst, a 8 hour drive from Lincoln. Columbia isn't too much better, but at least the drive to an Illinois/Iowa game is tolerable. Penn State? Not so much.
Bottom line is, there are a lot of hoops to jump through before anything happens. Dont believe anything anyone (ESPN) says till at least the winter of 2011 at earliest.
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