Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Week 1 Fantasy Impact

Week 1 of the NFL season is officially in the books, and what a definitely entertaining week 1 it was.  From a fantasy football perspective, there were definitely some big performances and developments which will play a huge role all season long.  From breakout performances (Arian Fosterand Hakeem Nicks) to damaging injuries (Ryan Grant), the impact will surely be felt by owners.


Biggest developments of the week


 
Foster scored at will against the Colts
porous run defense in week 1
 Arian Foster (RB, Texans) - To the hardcore fantasy football players, this doesn't come as quite as big of a surprise as it does to most others, as with the loss of rookie running back Ben Tate in the preseason and the fact that Steve Slaton has completely fallen out of favor in Houston meant that Foster was the lead guy, and with all the talk of his talent, he was going to bust out at some point, but nobody expected it to be week 1 of the season, against the defending AFC champion Colts, and to this extent.  He carved up the porous Colts defense to the tune of 231 yards and 3 TD's on 33 carries, making everyone further forget about Slaton, and remember the terrible Colts run defenses of recent years. 


Will he perform like this game in and game out?  Well no, that's a phenomenal game and far to much to expect, but he is a definite threat to put up triple digit yards and multiple scores every game, and highly reward fantasy owners who snagged him up anywhere from the 3rd to 6th round.


Ryan Grant (RB, Packers) - This one is nearly as big a story as that of Foster, but unfortunately, for a completely opposite reason.  Grant started out his season looking strong in the Packers high octane offense, tallying 45 yards on his first 8 carries.  But on that 8th carry, Grant went down wrong on his ankle, and left week 1 with what was said to be a sprained ankle.  As a fantasy owner, you hear sprained ankle for a running back, and you hate it, because it could so easily be a high-ankle sprain, and force them to the sidelines for multiple weeks, but you don't ever anticipate to hear out for the season from an ankle sprain.


Well, unfortunately, this case is one of the latter.  It has been determined that grant damaged ligaments in his ankle, likely forcing surgery, and ending his season nearly as quickly as it began.  This can potentially be devastating to fantasy owners, as he is a late 2nd and early 3rd round pick, and an every week starter.  Fantasy owners everywhere will be fighting on the waiver wire to pick up new Packer starter Brandon Jackson, especially owners of Grant.  As an owner of Grant myself in a big league, one in which I am left with Beanie Wells and Jerome Harrison as my only 2 backs who will get many touches, it damages my team quickly, because I am in a bad waiver position and will not get Jackson.



Matt Forte catching the go ahead TD,
A catch many receivers may not have made
Matt Forte (RB, Bears) - Yes, it was against the Lions, so owners of Forte need not get over excited, but wow, what a huge game for the 2009 first round fantasy bust Forte.  He only had 50 yards rushing on 17 carries (less than 3 yards per carry), but it was as a receiver where Forte blew up.  He totaled 151 yards on 7 catches, including an 89 yard catch and run for a score, and later adding an acrobatic 28 yard score, making fantasy owners extremely happy, at least for the time being.  He nearly added a 3rd TD but failed to get in from 1-yard out, or else he would have taken over the star of the week and overshadowed Foster.
It is worth noting that Chester Taylor was not completely quiet on the week, as he had 12 touches totaling 73 yards on the day, and will definitely get his share going forward, but owners of Forte are clearly happier this season so far than they were a year ago.



Hakeem Nicks catching
one of his 3 scores
 Hakeem Nicks (WR, Giants) - Think Plaxico Burress, take away the gun toting in the nightclub, subtract a few years off his age, and you get Nicks.  He showed signs a year ago of being primed to breakout as a star, and in week 1 of his sophomore season, he came through already.  He caught only 4 passes on the day from Eli Manning for 75 yards, but 3 of them for scores.  He was drafted significantly lower than teammate Steve Smith in fantasy drafts, mainly because Smith will catch a ton of balls, but Nicks will almost undoubtedly have more yards many weeks, and is a much better chance to score.  By years end, he will make owners regret drafting Smith over him, although I do think Smith will produce quite well on his own.


Peyton Manning (QB, Colts) - It seems every year he gets bumped down in fantasy drafts by another quarterback or two, going behind Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers often times this year, but every year, all he does is reward those owners who took him.  On Sunday, he put up 433 yards, and 3 scores on 57 pass attempts, AND THEY LOST!  That last part was thrown in because it cannot be expected that Manning attempts 57 passes very often, but if their run defense cannot keep teams in check, Manning may be throwing even more, and this is Peyton Manning people, he completes a ton, and makes receivers fantasy stars, as he did with Austin Collie this week, connecting 10 times for 131 yards and a score with the second year wideout, and making people quickly realize that Anthony Gonzalez is the definitely 4th receiver, and 5th option once Dallas Clark is factored in.


Week 1 disappointments


Week in and week out, there are sure to be plenty of disappointments from a fantasy perspective, and the biggest of those usually always comes from the guys who are drafted in the first few rounds, because they have the most stock and hopes put on them, and when they don't put up big numbers, it can mean a loss for an owner, and so often, panic.


The key is to not panic, and relax, and realize, it's one week.  You drafted these guys for a reason, and as long as they remain healthy, almost undoubtedly, they will produce for you. 


It's those guys who disappoint week after week that you must truly worry about.


There were plenty of highly drafted players who failed to put up numbers to satisfy owners in week 1...


Quarterback


Aaron Rodgers - It may not be his fault, as he has very little time to throw the ball with that line, but if that continues, it will be quite tough for him to threaten 5,000 passing yards, and there will be more turnovers than owners would like to see.  He threw for 2 scores, but only 188 yards from Rodgers is far below expectations.


Drew Brees - The Saints took the opening kickoff of the season, marched down field in 2 minutes and 4 second, and scored on a strike from Brees to Dev Henderson, and we all thought, here we go! That was pretty much it for him on the night, however.  He got to 237 yards on the night, but only the 1 score, and missed some open receivers on a night when the Vikings were more less than thin at the cornerback position.


Matt Schaub - He puts up 107 yards compared to Manning's 433, and he beat Manning?!?  Schaub went only 9 of 17, with 1 score and 1 interception, but all he really needed to do was give it to Foster on the day to win.  He will heat up quickly with wideout Andre Johnson and company.


Running backs


Michael Turner - He put up a whopping 42 yards on 19 carries, and only added another 7 yards on one catch.  Yes, it was against the Steelers tough defense, but still, it was definitely expected that Turner would average far better than 2.2 yards per carry, but he will be just fine going forward, and there is no sign that any carries will be vultured away from the fantasy workhorse.


Cedric Benson - The guy who it seemed like nobody wanted to buy into as a top tier type running back, and people dreaded drafting because after all, it's still Cedric Benson, and he did little to put owners at ease against New England.  Sure, he did score late, but still averaged less than 3 yards per carry on 15 carries.  With T.O. in town, and rookies Jermaine Gresham and Jordan Shipley to go along with Chad Ochocinco, the passing game will undoubtedly take away from Benson's opportunities as the year progresses.


Shonn Greene - His chance to take over the starting gig, and what did he do with it?  He fumbled twice, one of them caused by his own offensive lineman's backside, and lost 1. All told, he only carried the ball 5 times for 18 whole yards in week 1. Meanwhile,  LaDanian Tomlinson took full advantage of his chance, running for 62 yards on 11 carries and adding 16 yards on 2 receptions, all against one of the toughest defenses in all of the league in the Ravens.  Perhaps, LT wasn't done after all, and this could get quite interesting going forward.


Wide Receivers


Andre Johnson - The unquestioned star of the receiving group this year did very little in week 1, catching only 3 passes for 33 yards, but this had nothing to do with him not getting open and catching passes, the Texans simply did not have the need to throw with that performance by Arian Foster.  He's still Andre Johnson, the Texans will throw plenty, and he will still make owners very happy.


Larry Fitzgerald - The guy who is right there with Johnson as the top receivers in the NFL, also did little in week 1.  He did score late to salvage the day a bit, but only caught 3 of 15 passes thrown his way.  This is due to the lack of time in the preseason with new quarterback Derek Anderson, and with some time to build some chemistry together, it will most likely be Fitzgerald catching the bulk of the passes for more than 100 yards instead of Steve Breaston.  Though it is worth noting that Breaston is poised for a big year with the departure of Anquan Boldin.


Michael Crabtree - This guy wasn't drafted quite as high, but the hopes sure are high for him.  He rewarded fantasy owners with a stellar 12 yard performance on 2 catches.  This is due in part of Alex Smith, but he must get open.  That time not on the field in August showed right away.


Transaction of the week


Ryan Grant (drop) - With the news of Grant being out for the season, he can obviously be dropped in leagues, and owners all over will be going after incumbent running back Brandon Jackson.


Fred Taylor (add) - He showed at the ripe old age of 88, he can still run, racking up 71 yards on 14 carries.  With the news coming out today that Laurence Maroney was traded to the Broncos, and Sammy Morris only getting 1 carry on Sunday, this job appears to belong to Taylor.


Mark Clayton (add) - He only joined the Rams just over a week ago, and still has rookie Sam Bradford to toss him the ball, but he got 16 targets, and caught 10 for over 100 yards.  He is the most experienced receiver they have, and showed it in week 1.


Mike Thomas (add) - Mike Sims-Walker was drafted relatively high in most drafts.  Mike Thomas went largely undrafted.  Thomas caught 6 balls for nearly 100 yards.  Sims-Walker failed to record a catch.  Could be a sign of things to come going forward.


Kyle Orton (add) - This guy seems to continuously be overlooked as a fantasy quarterback.  No clue as to why.  Is it because people somehow think Tebow is going to take the job?  Can't be.  He got in for a few plays, but never threw the ball, all the while Orton nearly threw for 300 yards on the day in the sweltering heat, and looks poised to have a very nice season throwing the ball.  You can do worse.


Keep and eye on these guys


Lance Moore (WR, Saints) - The Saints throw a ton.  Lance Moore was their main guy just 2 seasons ago, before being hurt much of last season.  He's the best slot option they have, and is now healthy. He won't be a Wes Welker type out of the slot, but he will work his way back into a bigger role in that high octane offense.


Early Doucet (WR, Cardinals) - The Cardinals will throw a lot with Anderson, contrary to what people thought with the departure of Warner.  Doucet, when healthy seeing as how he left week 1, will take over the role that Breaston played for the last few years and can put up some nice games.


Larod Stephens-Howling (RB, Cardinals) - If Hightower continues to have fumbling issues, then even with Wells back, LSH can play a larger role, seeing as how he is the quickest of the backs they have, and a great change of pace guy.  If an injury plays a longer role with either Wells or Hightower, he can get some good work in both running and receiving.


Dmitri Nance (RB, Packers) - Brandon Jackson now is the lead guy.  John Kuhn is a bruiser who may score the TD's.  But Jackson once lost the job before in 2007 to Grant, and he has never shown to take a lot of punishment.  Nance was just signed, and most assuredly will get work going forward.


Kevin Faulk (RB, Patriots) - The other 80+ year old back on the Pats.  He's the guy who catches a lot of passes, and does a lot with his limited carries.  May see a few more touches without Maroney around to take any.



He can win some games for you
 Mike Vick (QB, Eagles) - It's not secret what he can do, it's just how often will he get the chances.  Kolb may be out a few weeks, so Vick will get his chances for now.  Just who knows what chances he will get once Kolb is back.  Vick has potential to win you some games.
















Don't even bother


Brandon Lloyd (WR, Broncos) - He has teased at times for years, then disappears.  He had a nice week 1, but the Broncos and Orton will use Jabar Gaffney, Eric Decker, and Demaryius Thomas more going forward, and Lloyd will probably fade.


Deion Branch (WR, Seahawks) - The guy has done little with the Seahawks.  They let go of Houshmandzadeh, so the thought it Branch should get more chances.  Sure, he caught a TD in week 1, but only caught 3 balls, and the other Deon is better, and will catch more as weeks go on.


Good luck as your seasons go on.  Enjoy football as much as you can, it's not here long enough.


Stay tuned for more fantasy information and my thoughts on the upcoming games as well as each week's recap.

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