Thursday, September 16, 2010

Why the New York Yankees are NOT the team to beat this October.



Yes, I know that they are the defending world champions. Yes, I know that until you are dethroned you are still the king. However, neither the ALCS or World Series goes through New York this year, and here is why.

1) Matchups: Yes, the Yankees have what will be the AL Cy Young award winner. But the other 3 teams that will be in the AL playoffs all match up with the Yanks very well. So far this year against the Tampa Bay Rays the Yanks are 6-6 with 4 games still to go. Against the Rangers they are 4-5 and losing 4 of their last 6 and 3 in a row against them. Against Minnesota they are 4-2. That being said. Yes, they do have a winning record against the rest of the playoff contenders. But by a close margin. 3 games over .500 against 3 teams is not alot.

2) Age: The Yankees average age is 29.37 with 6 players 35 or older. The average age for all MLB players is 27.2 (bleacherreport.com). A-Rod, Jeter, Pettite, Rivera and Posada are all over 35. Jeter has seen a 60 point drop in this batting average over the last year. He is normally a .320 hitter and now he is right at .260.

3) Injuries) Andy Pettite comes back from an injury on Sunday. Meanwhile Nick Swisher was hurt in the series against the Rangers. Jorge Posada has been relegated to pinch hitting duty due to a concussion and Mark Texiera has a broken toe. How healthy they are come postseason time is vital to their success.

4) Peak performance: Yes, both the Yankees and Rays are still playing good baseball, perhaps the Rays better than the Yanks of late. But, nonetheless they are both still great teams. It seems as though the Twins and the Rangers have started peaking at the perfect time, just before the playoffs start. If the Yankees have all of their key components playing and healthy come playoff time, they will be a force to be reckoned with. But with their age, that is a big step right now.

5) scheduling for the rest of the regular season: with 18 games to go, the New York Yankees are half a game out of first, and lead the Red Sox by 6 games in the wild card. they have a 7 game stretch in their final games where they face the Sox for 6 and the Rays for 4. What's not to say that the Sox get fired up and make a late season push for the wildcard? Yes, they are still injured, but they are also still capable. Do i expect this? no. But it is possible.

At the end of the day, the AL East is the most interesting storyline in all of baseball as it is seamingly every season. One thing is for sure. There's still a lot of baseball to be played, and it's going to be fun!


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